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Insights

Thoughts on security, risk, deterrence, AI, and the operational mindset.

Featured

General

June 7, 2026

Statistical Anomalies in LA Mayoral Election: A Deeper Analysis

A statistical analysis of Spencer Pratt's performance in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary election, comparing his election day vote share to subsequently counted mail-in ballot batches — a divergence that falls outside any reasonable probability model.

AI Risk

May 2024

The Evolution of Cyber Threats in the Age of AI: Challenges and Responses

AI has revolutionized the capabilities of cyber attackers, enabling them to pose challenges akin to near-peer adversaries. This piece explores how AI is reshaping both offense and defense in modern cybersecurity.

Deterrence

Apr 2024

Understanding how Rationality, Deterrence Theory, and Indeterminism Influence Cybercrime

Understanding the factors influencing cybercriminal behavior is essential for developing effective prevention strategies. This piece explores how rationality, deterrence theory, and Bayesian thinking intersect in the fight against cybercrime.

Cybersecurity

Nov 2023

For Want of a Cyber Nail, the Kingdom Fell

An ancient proverb about a lost horseshoe nail cascading into the fall of a kingdom offers a surprisingly apt metaphor for modern cybersecurity — where a single overlooked patch or unaddressed vulnerability can bring down an entire organization.

Cybersecurity

Nov 2023

Applying an Intelligence-Based Approach to Cybersecurity: SIEM and Dark Web Monitoring

The boundaries between military intelligence and cybersecurity are increasingly blurred. SIEM systems and dark web monitoring bring time-tested intelligence tradecraft into the modern enterprise security posture.

Cybersecurity

Oct 2023

Strengthening Cybersecurity: Force Multiplication and Security Efficiency

As asymmetric cyber threats continue to erode the value of conventional security spending, organizations must borrow from military theory and apply the concept of force multiplication to achieve more with less.

Cybersecurity

Sep 2022

Risk Counts for Cyber — and Here Is Why

Risk is one of those standard terms in cybersecurity that many struggle to define. Understanding how to quantify, prioritize, and mitigate risk is the foundation of any effective security strategy.

Deterrence

May 2021

Asymmetrical Threats in Cybersecurity

The US military has struggled against weaker insurgents in Vietnam, Somalia, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The same asymmetric dynamics that confound military superpowers apply directly to cybersecurity — and understanding them is the first step to countering them.

Cybersecurity

May 2021

The New Normal Is Actually Very Normal: Punctuated Equilibrium, Security Cycle Theory, and the "New Normal"

The 'New Normal' sounds alarming, but history shows it's anything but new. Punctuated equilibrium — the theory that long periods of stability are interrupted by sudden, disruptive change — explains exactly what happened in 2020 and what organizations must do in response.

Bayesian Analysis

Feb 2021

Quantifying CyberRisk: Solving the Riddle

Can companies accurately quantify cybersecurity risk? Traditional frequentist probability models break down in the face of adaptive human adversaries. This piece argues for a Bayesian approach — one that accounts for uncertainty, motivation, and threat adaptation.

Cybersecurity

Mar 2020

Exploits, Vulnerabilities, and Threat Adaptation

Security cannot be binary — 'secure' or 'not secure.' Understanding the inextricably linked concepts of exploits and vulnerabilities, and how threat actors adapt to circumvent controls over time, is foundational to any sound security program.